Updated 14 September 2026. Brent crude traded at $106.69 a barrel, up $2.08 or 1.99% on the day, with WTI at $102.00, up 1.95% (Trading Economics, 14 September). Gulf News quoted the November Brent contract at $107.54, up 2.8%, in its 14 September report.
Verdict: the one event this week that could have pulled the geopolitical premium out of crude was the GCC-Iran meeting on Strait of Hormuz shipping. Oman postponed it. Crude went up, not down.
Key facts
- Brent was quoted at $106.69 a barrel on Monday 14 September, up $2.08 (1.99%); WTI was at $102.00, up 1.95% (Trading Economics, 14 September).
- Gulf News, in a 14 September report last updated 08:24, quoted Brent for November delivery at $107.54, up 2.8%, and WTI for October at $102.34, up 2.3%. It put early Monday trade at Brent $104.60 and WTI $100.00.
- Oman postponed the GCC-Iran meeting on managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that had been due in Salalah.
- Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said the postponement was “to ensure appropriate conditions for constructive dialogue that can help achieve sustainable understandings, support regional security and stability.”
- Iran’s foreign ministry said the meeting was postponed “at the request of some regional countries.”
- Saudi Arabia’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline remains shut after drone strikes on 10-11 September. The Saudi foreign ministry said the pipeline was targeted in the Riyadh and Medina areas by “several drones originating from Iraq.”
- Trading Economics described Brent as rising “toward $108 a barrel, a 4-month high, after rallying over 9% last week.”
The story on Monday was the meeting that did not happen
For the past week every fresh move in crude has come from an escalation: the Houthi advance on Mocha, the seizure of Perim Island at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb, and the drone strikes that shut Saudi Arabia’s main pipeline workaround. Monday was supposed to be the first test of the other direction.
Gulf Cooperation Council foreign ministers were due to sit down with their Iranian counterpart in Salalah to discuss a temporary arrangement for managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. That meeting did not take place. Oman postponed it, with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi framing the delay as an effort to “ensure appropriate conditions for constructive dialogue that can help achieve sustainable understandings, support regional security and stability.” Iran’s foreign ministry said the postponement came “at the request of some regional countries.”
The distinction matters for anyone pricing crude this week. A postponement is not a collapse in talks, and both sides were careful to leave the door open. But it removes the only scheduled near-term catalyst that could have justified taking risk premium out of the barrel, and the market repriced accordingly within hours.
Why crude rose on a diplomatic delay
Oil had already spent the previous week climbing on supply-route risk. What made Monday different is that the market had been carrying a small discount in anticipation of the Salalah meeting. When the meeting slipped, that discount came back out.
The structural problem behind the headline has not changed. Iran has effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia had responded by rerouting roughly 5 million barrels a day through the 1,200 km East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The 10-11 September drone strikes took that alternative offline. Two of the three routes a Gulf barrel can take to market are therefore constrained at the same time, and the third, the Bab el-Mandeb, is the one the Houthis have spent the last week advancing on. We covered the Perim Island seizure and what it does to strait control in our 12 September piece on the Perim Island advance and the Saudi pipeline, and the earlier Mocha move in the 11 September report on Mocha and the Bab el-Mandeb.
Iraq said it had dismissed a military commander and opened an investigation after confirming the drone attack originated from Maysan province, which borders Iran. Saudi Arabia expressed its “strongest condemnation” but said it would not retaliate for now, following a request from Baghdad. That restraint is one of the few genuinely de-escalatory facts in the set, and it is worth weighing against the postponed meeting.
What the banks actually forecast from here
It is worth separating the spot tape from the published forecasts, because they disagree sharply. The sell-side has generally not chased crude to these levels.
| Scenario | Brent level | Named anchor |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $85 (December 2026) | Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 forecast by $5 to $85 Brent and $80 WTI. JPMorgan has Brent averaging $86 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. |
| Base | Above $100 through 2026 | Goldman’s stated case that another month of Hormuz closure means Brent stays over $100 throughout 2026. |
| Bull | Above $120 in Q4 2026 | The scenario in which Hormuz disruption runs into 2027, with Brent averaging around $100 through 2027. |
The gap between the bear anchor and Monday’s tape is the entire argument. Goldman’s $85 and JPMorgan’s $80 for Q4 both sit more than $20 below where Brent traded on Monday, which tells you those forecasts assume the chokepoint problem resolves. Every week the Salalah meeting does not happen is a week that assumption gets harder to hold. Our scenario framework for WTI, with its bull and bear levels, is set out in the 10 September WTI piece.
What would actually change the picture
- The Salalah meeting being rescheduled with a date. A postponement with a firm new date reads very differently from an open-ended delay.
- The East-West pipeline restarting. This is the largest single swing factor in the set, because it is roughly 5 million barrels a day of rerouting capacity.
- Any formal arrangement on Hormuz transit. Even a temporary, narrow deal would attack the premium directly.
- Supply-side offsets. The EIA has raised its 2027 US crude output forecast to 14.3 million barrels a day, and the IEA cut its 2026 demand outlook. Both work against the bull case over a longer horizon than this week.
Quick take
Brent near $107 is not a fresh escalation print. It is the removal of a de-escalation discount. The Salalah postponement, an East-West pipeline that is still shut, and a Bab el-Mandeb under active contest leave crude with no obvious route lower until at least one of the three resolves. The published bank forecasts, clustered in the $80-86 range for Q4, are the clearest statement of how much of the current price the sell-side still treats as temporary.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent was quoted at $106.69 a barrel on 14 September 2026, up $2.08 or 1.99% on the day, according to Trading Economics. Gulf News quoted the November contract at $107.54, up 2.8%, the same day. Crude moves intraday, so treat any single print as a snapshot.
Why did oil prices rise on 14 September 2026?
Oman postponed the GCC-Iran meeting on Strait of Hormuz shipping that had been due in Salalah, removing the week’s scheduled de-escalation catalyst, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline stayed shut after drone strikes on 10-11 September.
Who postponed the Hormuz talks and why?
Oman postponed the meeting. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said it was to “ensure appropriate conditions for constructive dialogue that can help achieve sustainable understandings, support regional security and stability.” Iran’s foreign ministry said it was postponed “at the request of some regional countries.”
Is the Saudi East-West pipeline still closed?
Yes. Saudi Arabia shut it as a precaution after drone strikes on 10-11 September that its foreign ministry attributed to “several drones originating from Iraq.” It had been carrying roughly 5 million barrels a day of crude rerouted away from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
What do analysts forecast for Brent?
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast by $5 to $85, with WTI at $80. JPMorgan expects Brent to average $86 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Goldman has separately said another month of Hormuz closure would keep Brent over $100 throughout 2026.
Could Brent go above $120?
That is the scenario in which Hormuz disruption persists into 2027, under which Brent could exceed $120 in Q4 2026 and average around $100 through 2027. It requires the chokepoint problem to remain unresolved, not merely unresolved this week.
Does the Bab el-Mandeb matter as much as Hormuz?
They matter together. With Hormuz effectively closed and the East-West pipeline shut, the Bab el-Mandeb became the working route, which is precisely why Houthi advances on Mocha and Perim Island moved the price.
Sources: Trading Economics (Brent and WTI quotes, 14 September 2026); Gulf News (Oman postponement, ministerial quotes and contract prices, 14 September 2026); Al Jazeera, CNN and ABC News (East-West pipeline drone strikes and shutdown, 11-12 September 2026); Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan published Brent forecasts; EIA and IEA output and demand outlooks.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Commodity prices are volatile and geopolitical situations change rapidly. Figures quoted are accurate as of the times stated and may have moved since. Do your own research before making any investment decision.
